Super Tuesday... Part 2

Nope, this is not going to be about the Super Bowl. Let's get that straight right now. Yikes, I was listening to some local sports radio on the slow and snowy ride to work this morning and it was fairly sad listening to grown men practically cry over this game. YES, I was upset, but life goes on... Sorry - I digress, sort of...

As for the topic, it looks as though the political landscape is not going to change as much as many had thought with today's Super Tuesday primaries. As of about 9:30 EST, Clinton and Obama had about split the primaries and caucuses already called and with the others, they are so close that they may end up splitting delegates. Most had thought that one or the other could really gain some ground today, apparently not.
On the Republican side, things were far different as McCain put a lot of distance between he and Romney and Mike Huckabee won no fewer than 3 primaries. I would assume that Huckabee - although not a serious contender - will stay in the race while I would expect Romney to make an announcement sometime tomorrow about the future of his candidacy.

Who will rise to the top in New Hampshire?

With the Iowa caucuses in the past and the supposed "surprise winners" trying to hold onto the limelight, the nation's first primary looms just two days away. And like I wrote after that outcome, I don't think those two victories carry over to New Hampshire. Converesly, I expect that neither Barrack Obama nor Mike Huckabee win top the polls when the results are in. While I expect Billary Clinton's lead in the polls will translate to a New Hampshire victory, I think the republican side will offer a closer race. Rudy Giuliani, who for all intents in purposes, sat out the Iowa caucuses, will prove to be a a strong opponent to the state's straw polls leader Mitt Romney. And so if I'm right, what does it really mean? It means that aside from some public limelight, neither Iowa or New Hampshire hold much water and certainly not many convention delegates, but you'll be hard pressed to find a political pundit who wouldn't admit that as these races get closer, the personal attack ads will become more frequent, which makes me wonder how many people will actually show up to vote instead of saying, none of the above. It should be an intersting day.

Huckabee and Obama winners, but will Iowa be the answer?

Hmmm. Sorry if I again sound a little cynical, but quite frankly, I've already heard too much about the primaries/caucuses and the first one just happened. The mere fact that New Hampshire had to move up their primary to remain first in the nation is just proof that politics is still far-more about perception that actuality.
For example, let's look at tonight's winner in the Iowa caucuses. I've heard some reporters saying that Barrack Obama's and Mike Huckabee's wins were upsets... Really? Perhaps these journalists haven't spent much time out in Iowa, I know I haven't, but I'm well aware of the political landscape there and I know how important religion is to the voters there. So sure, there was going to be a huge advantage for Mike Huckabee. Yes, Romney was an early leader, but he swayed lately, to take jabs at John McCain, which may have made sense starting tomorrow, but I think it cost him some votes in Iowa. More importantly, his attacks on Huckabee cost him all of Iowa. On the democratic side, the winner is no surprise. Obama speaks to the Midwestern voters more than Hillary Clinton could ever, but the true surprise is that as of this hour, Clinton is actually in third behind the ever-charismatic, but rarely substantive John Edwards.
Regardless of any the results from tonight, I don't think that Iowa will do much of anything to shape voters minds prior to other caucuses and primaries. The leader on the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani, didn't even campaign in Iowa and on the democratic side, are there people who really don't have a Clinton/Obama preference? Perhaps, but I doubt it. What this could do is really fire up the Clinton political engine. A third place finish would not sit well with the former first family and you can bet that the attack ads would start flying.
I'll continue to watch, read, and follow the election season because I find it interesting, but let's not get too carried away with tonight's results to think that anything very definitive, aside from Chris Dodd (D-CT) dropping out this evening, will happen before Super Tuesday when many of the delegates for the respective conventions will be decided.