Showing posts with label Iowa caucuses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa caucuses. Show all posts

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Huckabee and Obama winners, but will Iowa be the answer?

Hmmm. Sorry if I again sound a little cynical, but quite frankly, I've already heard too much about the primaries/caucuses and the first one just happened. The mere fact that New Hampshire had to move up their primary to remain first in the nation is just proof that politics is still far-more about perception that actuality.
For example, let's look at tonight's winner in the Iowa caucuses. I've heard some reporters saying that Barrack Obama's and Mike Huckabee's wins were upsets... Really? Perhaps these journalists haven't spent much time out in Iowa, I know I haven't, but I'm well aware of the political landscape there and I know how important religion is to the voters there. So sure, there was going to be a huge advantage for Mike Huckabee. Yes, Romney was an early leader, but he swayed lately, to take jabs at John McCain, which may have made sense starting tomorrow, but I think it cost him some votes in Iowa. More importantly, his attacks on Huckabee cost him all of Iowa. On the democratic side, the winner is no surprise. Obama speaks to the Midwestern voters more than Hillary Clinton could ever, but the true surprise is that as of this hour, Clinton is actually in third behind the ever-charismatic, but rarely substantive John Edwards.
Regardless of any the results from tonight, I don't think that Iowa will do much of anything to shape voters minds prior to other caucuses and primaries. The leader on the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani, didn't even campaign in Iowa and on the democratic side, are there people who really don't have a Clinton/Obama preference? Perhaps, but I doubt it. What this could do is really fire up the Clinton political engine. A third place finish would not sit well with the former first family and you can bet that the attack ads would start flying.
I'll continue to watch, read, and follow the election season because I find it interesting, but let's not get too carried away with tonight's results to think that anything very definitive, aside from Chris Dodd (D-CT) dropping out this evening, will happen before Super Tuesday when many of the delegates for the respective conventions will be decided.