Super Tuesday... Part 2

Nope, this is not going to be about the Super Bowl. Let's get that straight right now. Yikes, I was listening to some local sports radio on the slow and snowy ride to work this morning and it was fairly sad listening to grown men practically cry over this game. YES, I was upset, but life goes on... Sorry - I digress, sort of...

As for the topic, it looks as though the political landscape is not going to change as much as many had thought with today's Super Tuesday primaries. As of about 9:30 EST, Clinton and Obama had about split the primaries and caucuses already called and with the others, they are so close that they may end up splitting delegates. Most had thought that one or the other could really gain some ground today, apparently not.
On the Republican side, things were far different as McCain put a lot of distance between he and Romney and Mike Huckabee won no fewer than 3 primaries. I would assume that Huckabee - although not a serious contender - will stay in the race while I would expect Romney to make an announcement sometime tomorrow about the future of his candidacy.

Game over after Florida, but for how many?

While John McCain picked up a much needed and closely fought victory in the FLoriday primary, reports are in that former GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani has opted out of the race and will back McCain. While Mitt Romney came a close 2nd, the Florida primary showed that McCain could get out the voters on a much smaller budget. Now that he has another candidates endorsement and potentially his voters in such states as New York, the race for a GOP candidate could be all but over, even before Super Tuesday.

Not the stategy I would have picked for an election...

Hmm... So before I make my newest point on Election 2008, please let me again state that I am not currently endorsing a candidate from any political party for President. I have someone I am and have been leaning towards, but this is not a place for me to share who that is or why I think they would be a good candidate and President. During the general election, if that person is still a candidate, I may disclose who I am supporting, but until that time, it doesn't matter. I will, however, make fun of candidates if situations warrant. ('cause why not?)
I truly think that anyone reading this should put more into learning about each candidate and focus less on what the media portrays. You owe it to yourself to do so as images and perceptions are scewed and there is a lot of information out there if you choose to find it.
Now, my thought about the Michigan primaries. I was half right about the New Hampshire primaries, but Michigan has me a little baffled. On the Republican side, there surely is a battle and with the results just hours away, it still appears to be Mitt Romney and John McCain fighting it out to the end. Romney, with strong ties to the state, says he doesn't "need" Michigan to continue, but I think that a lose here may set spell the beginning of the end. McCain, who pulled out the upset in New Hampshire, has said he's in it for the long haul and whereas he was all but done a few months back, he is now perceived as the possible front-runner, especially with the financial issues within the Giuliani camp. My prediction is that Romney pulls out a win in Michigan and gains a much needed 30 delegates.
It's a little stranger for the Democrats and two of them aren't even on the ballot. With all the back and forth between Clinton and Obama, you'd think there was a hotly contested vote in Michigan, but the reality is that in some sort twisting logic, the DNC decided that a good punishment for Michigan moving their primary would be to strip the state of its' delegates. From a democratic standpoint, that is just absurd, but in my opinion, not as absurd as taking your name off the ballot because there are no delegates available. We know clinton left her name on and will win, pretty much by default, but I think she sends a much better message than a couple of the other candidates. My question to Obama and Edwards would be why residents of Michigan should think about voting for you in the fall if you didn't care enough about their state in the primary? Yes, it's more complex than that, but it just seems a little strange.

A negative endorsement for Obama?

Former Presidential candidate and current junior US Senator from Massachusetts, John Kerry, threw his two cents into these early primary elections. Nope, he didn't opine as to weather he was pulling for Romney, but instead made a surprise endorsement of Barrack Obama. While many may have expected Kerry to come out and support John Edwards, I think we all know that Kerry may have already flip-flopped and changed his mind about the endorsement, but I would hedge a bet that his second choice would be Billary. Why? This is a two person race, regardless of how long the other democratic candidates stay in it and Kerry would love an appointment of some sort. That's not gonna come from Edwards. As for Obama, this may have been more negative than positive, but realistically it was most likely neither unless he were to campaign with Mr. Botox himself.

Who will rise to the top in New Hampshire?

With the Iowa caucuses in the past and the supposed "surprise winners" trying to hold onto the limelight, the nation's first primary looms just two days away. And like I wrote after that outcome, I don't think those two victories carry over to New Hampshire. Converesly, I expect that neither Barrack Obama nor Mike Huckabee win top the polls when the results are in. While I expect Billary Clinton's lead in the polls will translate to a New Hampshire victory, I think the republican side will offer a closer race. Rudy Giuliani, who for all intents in purposes, sat out the Iowa caucuses, will prove to be a a strong opponent to the state's straw polls leader Mitt Romney. And so if I'm right, what does it really mean? It means that aside from some public limelight, neither Iowa or New Hampshire hold much water and certainly not many convention delegates, but you'll be hard pressed to find a political pundit who wouldn't admit that as these races get closer, the personal attack ads will become more frequent, which makes me wonder how many people will actually show up to vote instead of saying, none of the above. It should be an intersting day.